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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 64

New York Giants 30 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIA 23, Center-69-C.Holba, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.91 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 22, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP