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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 13 – New York Giants 30

What Actually Happened

(6:40) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete deep right to 84-I.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 56, worth -2.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model