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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 26

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 5-D.Bailey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.49 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model