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Minnesota Vikings

10-4 HC Mike Zimmer
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Los Angeles Chargers

5-9 HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2019-12-15 · 16:05 ET StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

MIN
50.3%
LAC
49.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: +0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIN: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.117 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.234 EPA/dropback
  • LAC defense: -0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIN 23 16–30
–
LAC 22 15–29
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 15

MIN

Jayron Kearse S Out Toe
Alexander Mattison RB Out Ankle
Olabisi Johnson WR Questionable Quadricep
Xavier Rhodes CB Questionable Ankle

LAC

Desmond King CB Out Not Injury Related
Uchenna Nwosu LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 39
–
LAC 10

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:18 TD MIN (9:18) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 84-I.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – LAC 0
  • Q1 04:40 FG LAC (4:40) 4-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. MIN 6 – LAC 3
  • Q2 15:00 FG MIN (15:00) 5-D.Bailey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 9 – LAC 3
  • Q2 08:46 TD LAC (8:46) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 81-M.Williams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. MIN 9 – LAC 9
  • Q2 04:22 FG MIN (4:22) 5-D.Bailey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 12 – LAC 10
  • Q2 00:23 TD MIN (:23) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at MIN 36 for -10 yards (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter) [99-D.Hunter], touched at MIN 38, RECOVERED by MIN-95-I.Odenigbo at MIN 44. 95-I.Odenigbo for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 18 – LAC 10
  • Q3 12:41 FG MIN (12:41) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 22 – LAC 10
  • Q3 07:10 FG MIN (7:10) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 25 – LAC 10
  • Q4 10:30 TD MIN (10:30) 23-M.Boone up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 31 – LAC 10
  • Q4 08:48 TD MIN (8:48) 23-M.Boone up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 38 – LAC 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 85%

    (4:40) 4-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 20%

    (2:22) 2-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to LAC 4, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-31-A.Abdullah.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (15:00) 5-D.Bailey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 81%

    (4:22) 5-D.Bailey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 89%

    (12:41) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:20) 1-T.Long punts 26 yards to LAC 41, Center-45-C.Mazza, downed by LAC-48-N.Dzubnar. MIN 50 E.Wilson deflected LAC 1 T.Long's punt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.86 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%

    (7:10) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 60%

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 86-H.Henry to MIN 11 for 24 yards (22-H.Smith) [97-E.Griffen].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 14 at the 15
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 81-M.Williams.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:27) 2-B.Colquitt punts 56 yards to LAC 5, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-38-K.Boyd.

    See the full breakdown →