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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 20

Minnesota Vikings 19 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.79 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP