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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 20 at the 85

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 22

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 1-T.Long punts 26 yards to LAC 41, Center-45-C.Mazza, downed by LAC-48-N.Dzubnar. MIN 50 E.Wilson deflected LAC 1 T.Long's punt.

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 85, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 43, worth -2.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model