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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 35

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 25

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 86-H.Henry to MIN 11 for 24 yards (22-H.Smith) [97-E.Griffen].

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.85 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model