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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 51

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 2-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to LAC 4, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-31-A.Abdullah.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.76 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 51, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -2.10 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model