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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 1-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to WAS 24, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-S.Sims to WAS 35 for 11 yards (57-T.Edwards; 45-R.Lovato).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.97 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model