Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Dwayne Haskins (WAS): -0.303 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- WAS offense: -0.143 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- PHI offense: -0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
PHI
WAS
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 01:26 FG PHI (1:26) 4-J.Elliott 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 3 – WAS 0
- Q1 01:23 TD WAS (1:23) 7-D.Haskins pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – WAS 6
- Q2 09:58 TD PHI (9:58) 26-M.Sanders right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – WAS 7
- Q2 07:03 TD WAS (7:03) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short right to 15-S.Sims for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 10 – WAS 13
- Q3 06:02 TD PHI (6:02) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 26-M.Sanders for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – WAS 14
- Q4 15:00 TD WAS (15:00) 26-A.Peterson right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 17 – WAS 20
- Q4 10:02 TD PHI (10:02) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 23 – WAS 21
- Q4 08:06 FG WAS (8:06) 3-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. PHI 24 – WAS 24
- Q4 04:56 FG WAS (4:56) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. PHI 24 – WAS 27
- Q4 00:32 TD PHI (:32) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 84-G.Ward for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 30 – WAS 27
- Q4 00:06 TD PHI (:06) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins sacked at 50 for -8 yards (29-A.Maddox). FUMBLES (29-A.Maddox) [29-A.Maddox], RECOVERED by PHI-53-N.Bradham at WAS 48. 53-N.Bradham for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 37 – WAS 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 39%
(9:11) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to PHI 5, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-30-T.Apke.
-
Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%
(1:26) 4-J.Elliott 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(6:35) 1-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to WAS 24, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-S.Sims to WAS 35 for 11 yards (57-T.Edwards; 45-R.Lovato).
-
Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(5:11) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 27%
(1:53) 1-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to WAS 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-S.Sims.
-
Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 21%
(:49) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to PHI 2, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-41-D.Johnson.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 52%
(13:40) 1-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to WAS 14, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-S.Sims to WAS 11 for -3 yards (57-T.Edwards; 49-A.Singleton).
-
Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(12:03) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to PHI 34, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.
-
Q4 WAS 4th & 12 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 61%
(8:06) 3-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
-
Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 25 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EPp(convert) 64% p(FG) 83%
(4:56) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.