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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 51

Washington Commanders 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(:49) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to PHI 2, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-41-D.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.40 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 51, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model