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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 43

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to PHI 5, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-30-T.Apke.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.66 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP