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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 25

Washington Commanders 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.14 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP