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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 55

Carolina Panthers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to SEA 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.54 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 55, worth -2.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP