Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CAR offense: -0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- QB edge to SEA: Kyle Allen (CAR) -0.038 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.137 EPA/dropback
- CAR defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- SEA offense: -0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
SEA
CAR
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:34 TD SEA (10:34) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – CAR 0
- Q1 05:27 TD SEA (5:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-DK.Metcalf for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 12 – CAR 0
- Q2 13:46 TD CAR (13:46) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – CAR 6
- Q2 10:15 TD SEA (10:15) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 19 – CAR 7
- Q3 11:40 FG CAR (11:40) 4-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. SEA 20 – CAR 10
- Q3 00:32 FG SEA (:32) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 23 – CAR 10
- Q4 07:23 TD SEA (7:23) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 29 – CAR 10
- Q4 04:58 TD CAR (4:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – CAR 16
- Q4 03:19 TD CAR (3:19) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 10-C.Samuel for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – CAR 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(9:50) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to SEA 20, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 18 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(8:46) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to SEA 34, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%
(6:20) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to CAR 8, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-27-M.Blair.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 46%
(2:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to SEA 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 15 at the 95Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(1:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to 50, Center-44-N.Bellore, fair catch by 15-C.Hogan. PENALTY on CAR-47-R.Cockrell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at 50.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 68%
(11:40) 4-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 40%
(9:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to CAR 10, Center-44-N.Bellore, fair catch by 15-C.Hogan.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 12Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EPp(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%
(:32) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(13:47) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to SEA 18, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(7:23) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 60 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(4:35) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to CAR 16, Center-44-N.Bellore, downed by SEA-69-T.Ott.