Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 95

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to 50, Center-44-N.Bellore, fair catch by 15-C.Hogan. PENALTY on CAR-47-R.Cockrell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -3.62 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.80 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 95, worth -5.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model