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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 12

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(:32) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.96 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP