Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 6

(9:50) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to SEA 20, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
48% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model