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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 6

Seattle Seahawks 23 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:23) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.52 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model