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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(:41) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to CAR 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-C.Hogan pushed ob at CAR 30 for 8 yards (58-B.Okereke).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.13 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model