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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2019-12-22 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

CAR
28.9%
IND
71.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Will Grier (CAR): -0.273 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CAR starting Will Grier in place of Kyle Allen)
  • CAR offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CAR 18
–
IND 25
Projected margin: IND by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

CAR

Woodrow Hamilton DT Out Illness
Marquis Haynes LB Out Knee
Garrett McGhin T Out Ankle
Shaq Thompson LB Out Ankle
Matt Paradis C Questionable Illness
Vernon Butler DT Questionable Illness
Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Knee

IND

Denico Autry DT Out Concussion
Kenny Moore CB Out Ankle
Quincy Wilson CB Out Shoulder
Malik Hooker S Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 6
–
IND 38

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:30 TD IND (9:30) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 07:58 TD IND (7:58) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to IND 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-N.Hines for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – IND 13
  • Q2 10:22 FG CAR (10:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 3 – IND 14
  • Q2 05:17 TD IND (5:17) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 25-M.Mack up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – IND 20
  • Q3 11:03 FG IND (11:03) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.McLaughlin 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. CAR 3 – IND 24
  • Q3 04:21 FG CAR (4:21) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 6 – IND 24
  • Q4 07:34 TD IND (7:34) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to IND 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-N.Hines for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – IND 30
  • Q4 03:13 TD IND (3:13) 20-J.Wilkins right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – IND 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:01) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to IND 24, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-N.Hines to CAR 36 for 40 yards (53-B.Burns).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (9:30) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:58) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to IND 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-N.Hines for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (1:39) (Shotgun) 3-W.Grier sacked at IND 14 for -9 yards (99-J.Houston).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:41) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to CAR 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-C.Hogan pushed ob at CAR 30 for 8 yards (58-B.Okereke).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 60%

    (12:21) (Shotgun) 3-W.Grier pass short right to 10-C.Samuel to IND 27 for 12 yards (35-P.Desir).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (10:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (:45) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack left end pushed ob at CAR 4 for -1 yards (47-R.Cockrell).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 14 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 93%

    (11:03) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.McLaughlin 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 75%

    (4:21) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:26) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to CAR 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-C.Hogan pushed ob at CAR 30 for 8 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 42%

    (:47) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy pass short right to 18-D.White to IND 34 for 12 yards (30-G.Odum). Indianapolis challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 96%

    (13:45) 3-W.Grier left guard to IND 12 for no gain (99-J.Houston, 50-A.Walker).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 57%

    (9:15) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to CAR 4, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum. CAR-53-B.Burns was injured during the play.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:34) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to IND 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-N.Hines for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.