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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 39

Carolina Panthers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(12:21) (Shotgun) 3-W.Grier pass short right to 10-C.Samuel to IND 27 for 12 yards (35-P.Desir).

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.27 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model