Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(14:01) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to IND 24, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-N.Hines to CAR 36 for 40 yards (53-B.Burns).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 74, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model