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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 3

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(:45) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack left end pushed ob at CAR 4 for -1 yards (47-R.Cockrell).

The Three Options

GO +4.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.31 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.39 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model