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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 17

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:03) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.McLaughlin 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.21 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model