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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 32

Carolina Panthers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(4:21) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.54 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model