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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to CAR 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-C.Hogan pushed ob at CAR 30 for 8 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model