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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 40

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(9:15) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to CAR 4, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum. CAR-53-B.Burns was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.16 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP