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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(7:58) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to IND 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-N.Hines for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.21 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 30, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model