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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 31

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 3-K.Forbath 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.06 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP