Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- DAL offense: +0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- DAL defense: -0.006 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.165 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Carson Wentz (PHI): +0.032 EPA/dropback in prior starts
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 16
DAL
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:36 FG PHI (9:36) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. DAL 0 – PHI 3
- Q1 04:08 TD PHI (4:08) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – PHI 9
- Q2 13:00 FG DAL (13:00) 3-K.Forbath 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – PHI 10
- Q2 00:06 FG DAL (:06) 3-K.Forbath 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 6 – PHI 10
- Q3 00:09 TD PHI (:09) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – PHI 16
- Q4 08:04 FG DAL (8:04) 3-K.Forbath 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 9 – PHI 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%
(9:36) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57%
(8:00) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to PHI 37, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 56%
(2:56) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to PHI 28, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 84-G.Ward to PHI 29 for 1 yard (29-C.Goodwin).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(:24) 1-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to DAL 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 31Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 74%
(13:00) 3-K.Forbath 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 70%
(9:25) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 81-J.Perkins.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 34%
(7:26) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to PHI 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(3:32) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to DAL 10, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-R.Cobb to DAL 20 for 10 yards (57-T.Edwards).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(2:00) 6-C.Jones punts 30 yards to PHI 34, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 65%
(:34) 4-J.Elliott 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(7:25) 1-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to DAL 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DAL 4th & 12 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(4:52) 6-C.Jones punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(14:16) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to PHI 34, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 37Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 60%
(11:02) 4-J.Elliott 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(9:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 18-R.Cobb to PHI 37 for 17 yards (27-M.Jenkins).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 31Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 74%
(8:04) 3-K.Forbath 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PHI 4th & 18 at the 48 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 31%
(4:40) 1-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to DAL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 23 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 87%
(1:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Gallup (22-S.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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