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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2019-12-22 · 16:25 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

DAL
56.1%
PHI
43.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • PHI offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.165 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI defense: -0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 25
–
PHI 21
Projected margin: DAL by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

DAL

Leighton Vander Esch LB Out Neck
C.J. Goodwin CB Questionable Thumb
Devin Smith WR Questionable Knee
Joe Thomas LB Questionable Knee

PHI

Lane Johnson T Out Ankle
Nelson Agholor WR Questionable Knee
Derek Barnett DE Questionable Ankle
Jordan Howard RB Questionable Shoulder
Avonte Maddox CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 9
–
PHI 17

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:36 FG PHI (9:36) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. DAL 0 – PHI 3
  • Q1 04:08 TD PHI (4:08) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – PHI 9
  • Q2 13:00 FG DAL (13:00) 3-K.Forbath 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – PHI 10
  • Q2 00:06 FG DAL (:06) 3-K.Forbath 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 6 – PHI 10
  • Q3 00:09 TD PHI (:09) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – PHI 16
  • Q4 08:04 FG DAL (8:04) 3-K.Forbath 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 9 – PHI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (9:36) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (8:00) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to PHI 37, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (2:56) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to PHI 28, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 84-G.Ward to PHI 29 for 1 yard (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:24) 1-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to DAL 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 74%

    (13:00) 3-K.Forbath 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 70%

    (9:25) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 81-J.Perkins.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 34%

    (7:26) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to PHI 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:32) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to DAL 10, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-R.Cobb to DAL 20 for 10 yards (57-T.Edwards).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:00) 6-C.Jones punts 30 yards to PHI 34, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 65%

    (:34) 4-J.Elliott 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:25) 1-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to DAL 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 12 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:52) 6-C.Jones punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:16) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to PHI 34, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 60%

    (11:02) 4-J.Elliott 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 18-R.Cobb to PHI 37 for 17 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 74%

    (8:04) 3-K.Forbath 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 18 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 31%

    (4:40) 1-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to DAL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 87%

    (1:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Gallup (22-S.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.