Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 55

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Dallas Cowboys 3

(3:32) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to DAL 10, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-R.Cobb to DAL 20 for 10 yards (57-T.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.94 EP
68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model