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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(:34) 4-J.Elliott 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.38 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model