4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to PHI 34, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.43 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 30, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model