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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 18

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.30 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 18, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model