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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 37

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 4-J.Elliott 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.80 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP