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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 54

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(9:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 18-R.Cobb to PHI 37 for 17 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model