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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 1-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to DAL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.67 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model