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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to PHI 37, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.59 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 32, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model