Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Dallas Cowboys 0

(:24) 1-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to DAL 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.30 EP
52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 65, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model