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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 74

Detroit Lions 10 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to DEN 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer. Penalty on DEN-19-F.Brown, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.30 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model