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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
Sunday 2019-12-22 · 16:05 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 9.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

DET
39.5%
DEN
60.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • David Blough (DET): -0.176 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • DEN defense: +0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 21
–
DEN 22
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

DET

Christian Jones LB Out Shoulder
A'Shawn Robinson DT Out Shoulder
Rick Wagner T Out Knee
Devon Kennard LB Questionable Hamstring
Bo Scarbrough RB Questionable Ribs

DEN

Adam Gotsis DE Out Knee
Ja'Wuan James T Out Knee
Ronald Leary G Out Concussion
Dalton Risner G Questionable Illness
Noah Fant TE Questionable Shoulder
Dre'Mont Jones DE Questionable Ankle
Kyle Peko DT Questionable Illness
DeMarcus Walker DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 17
–
DEN 27

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:04 FG DET (9:04) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – DEN 0
  • Q2 11:10 TD DET (11:10) 6-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to DET 36, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 39-J.Agnew for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – DEN 0
  • Q2 06:08 TD DEN (6:08) 28-R.Freeman right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – DEN 6
  • Q2 00:29 FG DEN (:29) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. DET 10 – DEN 10
  • Q3 10:27 FG DEN (10:27) 8-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. DET 10 – DEN 13
  • Q3 03:56 TD DET (3:56) 10-D.Blough pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – DEN 13
  • Q4 13:12 TD DEN (13:12) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle to 17-D.Hamilton for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 17 – DEN 19
  • Q4 06:47 TD DEN (6:47) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 17 – DEN 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (9:04) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:06) 6-C.Wadman punts 53 yards to DET 19, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 39-J.Agnew pushed ob at DET 27 for 8 yards (83-A.Beck).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:05) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to DEN 23, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 32%

    (1:57) 6-C.Wadman punts 37 yards to DET 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:40) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:10) 6-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to DET 36, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 39-J.Agnew for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:12) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to DEN 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer. Penalty on DEN-19-F.Brown, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (:29) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (10:27) 8-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 28%

    (1:01) (Shotgun) 83-A.Beck pass short right to 30-P.Lindsay to DET 45 for 6 yards (90-T.Flowers). Handoff to DEN 83, Pass to DEN 30

  • Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:07) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DEN 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 24 for 14 yards (30-D.Virgin). PENALTY on DET-54-S.Longa, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 24.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 16 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:30) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to DEN 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-D.Spencer MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 20. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 28 for 8 yards (49-C.Moore; 35-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on DEN-59-M.Reed, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 28.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:06) 6-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to DET 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 39-J.Agnew to DET 26 for 3 yards (43-J.Jones). PENALTY on DET-30-D.Virgin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 26.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass incomplete short right to 19-K.Golladay. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.