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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 51

Denver Broncos 13 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Shotgun) 83-A.Beck pass short right to 30-P.Lindsay to DET 45 for 6 yards (90-T.Flowers). Handoff to DEN 83, Pass to DEN 30

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.79 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 51, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model