Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 73

Detroit Lions 17 – Denver Broncos 27

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass incomplete short right to 19-K.Golladay. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.09 EP
65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.48 EP