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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 72

Denver Broncos 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 6-C.Wadman punts 53 yards to DET 19, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 39-J.Agnew pushed ob at DET 27 for 8 yards (83-A.Beck).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.00 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model