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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 73

Detroit Lions 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to DEN 23, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.47 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 31, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model