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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 57

Detroit Lions 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.12 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 57, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP