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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 52

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to HOU 10, Center-97-Z.Triner. 14-D.Carter to HOU 20 for 10 yards (17-J.Watson; 79-P.O'Connor).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -2.09 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP