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Houston Texans

10-5 HC Bill O'Brien
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7-8 HC Bruce Arians
Saturday 2019-12-21 · 13:00 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

HOU
35.7%
TB
64.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TB defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • HOU offense: +0.010 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: Jameis Winston (TB) +0.141 vs Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.189 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20 13–27
–
TB 25 18–32
Projected margin: TB by 5 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

HOU

Jacob Martin LB Out Knee
Benardrick McKinney LB Out Concussion
Jahleel Addae S Questionable Achilles
Will Fuller WR Questionable Hamstring
Carlos Hyde RB Questionable Ankle
Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Hamstring
Brennan Scarlett LB Questionable Achilles

TB

Beau Allen DT Out Ankle
Chris Godwin WR Out Hamstring
Tanner Hudson TE Out Concussion
Ryan Jensen C Questionable Elbow
Jameis Winston QB Questionable right Thumb
Carlton Davis CB Questionable Ankle
Donovan Smith T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 23
–
TB 20

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:19 TD HOU (14:19) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby [98-D.Reader] at TB 27. 21-B.Roby for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – TB 0
  • Q1 11:34 FG HOU (11:34) 7-K.Fairbairn 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. HOU 10 – TB 0
  • Q1 01:01 FG TB (1:01) 9-M.Gay 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. HOU 10 – TB 3
  • Q2 09:25 TD HOU (9:25) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – TB 3
  • Q2 02:00 TD TB (2:00) (Shotgun) 27-R.Jones up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 17 – TB 9
  • Q2 00:20 TD TB (:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 17-J.Watson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 17 – TB 16
  • Q3 09:33 FG HOU (9:33) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. HOU 20 – TB 17
  • Q3 01:18 FG TB (1:18) 9-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. HOU 20 – TB 20
  • Q4 07:16 FG HOU (7:16) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. HOU 23 – TB 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (11:34) 7-K.Fairbairn 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 78%

    (8:50) 25-P.Barber left end to HOU 11 for 17 yards (39-T.Gipson). PENALTY on TB-18-I.Hyman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 26.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%

    (8:32) 9-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-A.Blackson), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by HOU-41-Z.Cunningham at HOU 30. 41-Z.Cunningham pushed ob at HOU 49 for 19 yards (9-M.Gay).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 60%

    (4:45) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn punts 26 yards to TB 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 70%

    (1:01) 9-M.Gay 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:34) 9-B.Anger punts 55 yards to TB 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-S.Schnell to TB 30 for 1 yard (33-A.Moore; 34-T.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 20%

    (7:18) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to HOU 10, Center-97-Z.Triner. 14-D.Carter to HOU 20 for 10 yards (17-J.Watson; 79-P.O'Connor).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:21) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to TB 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 83-S.Schnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 82%

    (11:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left tackle to TB 24 for 2 yards (54-L.David).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (9:33) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 86%

    (1:18) 9-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:34) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to TB 30, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-S.Schnell to TB 32 for 2 yards (38-G.Howell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 22%

    (12:11) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to HOU 12, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 91%

    (7:16) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 49%

    (3:38) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Brate.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 22%

    (2:27) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to TB 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 16 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 40%

    (:28) 9-B.Anger punts 39 yards to TB 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 83-S.Schnell.

    See the full breakdown →