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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 7

Houston Texans 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model